American Idol Predictions, from Simon Cowell and DialIdol

If you watched American Idol the other night, you probably learned from the dialog that Simon Cowell had predicted in an interview who he thinks will be in the top 3. Unlike last season, they didn’t reveal Simon’s prophecy on the show itself - but left it up to the viewers who cared to troll the internet to try to find the interview. Here’s what Simon says:

“Let me tell you who’s gonna be in the finals,” Cowell said. “The bald-headed kid [Daughtry] and the guy with gray hair [Hicks].”
A few minutes later, he added: “I think the top three will be the two I mentioned and Kellie Pickler.”

(taken from the Simon Cowell interview)

In saying this - did Simon really say anything that the rest of us didn’t already know? Of course the top two will be the grey-haired guy and the bald guy. They are the best singers in the group. Kellie will probably bring up the rear of the top-3… She’s very much like Carrie Underwood - only less diverse in her singing abilities (Kellie can only do Country) - and visibly much dumber (For instance, in this week’s show - she was fascinated by the fact that someone made a sign of a pickle to support her. Kellie: “Look - there’s a Pickle in the audience…” Secrest: [as if talking to a child] “Yes, I saw that…”).

Kellie wont win. She can’t win. No, it’s not because Carrie Underwood won last year - and she is too similar… It’s because Daughtry and Hicks are significantly better than any of the past Idol winners. Carrie Underwood wouldn’t win against those two…

Scientific Sampling

If you have ever tried to vote for someone before - you know that the lines are busy a lot of the time… and if they aren’t busy, that might not be a good sign. Well - combine the finite capacity of the phonebanks and the ingenuity of a group with a lot of time and modems on their hands - and you get DialIdol.com - a site that will list the American Idol performers in descending order based on how often their phone lines were busy.

Identify the Error

Now - in a classic RyeBlog tradition - I will ask you readers to explain to me what is wrong with using DialIdol’s data to predict winners… (No, it’s not the fact that their dialing may actually influence the votes… Presumably they either disconnect once they hear no busy signal - or their calling system will attempt to cast an even number of votes for each person - or their votes are thrown out as “power dialing” votes as defined in the fine text at the end of the show…)